Gold remains firm. With tensions rising in the Persian Gulf, the XAU/USD pair is trading well above the large base built throughout the middle of the year, in the 4000.00 region. This is not a euphoric move, it is more of a calm migration of money into an asset that swings less when the world becomes unpredictable.

Crude oil prices extended their gains for the fourth day today as fresh tanker-tracking data suggests traffic via the Strait of Hormuz has slowed further amid harder rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, with both sides demonstrating an unwillingness to return to the negotiating table.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $91.53 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $85.47 per barrel, two days after the expiration of the June ceasefire deal the U.S. and Iran had agreed, which broke down in early July.

The weakness we are seeing in the dollar today is still largely the cumulative effect of softer US data and the scaling back of expectations for another Fed hike.

Dollar Is Losing Its Front-End Rate Cushion

FX markets remain remarkably calm considering energy prices are nudging higher, global equities are under pressure, and long-end yields remain elevated. For now, currencies are still trading as though the disturbance is happening in the next room rather than directly on the FX desk.

Bitcoin whales are quietly stepping back into the market, accumulating more than $2.9 billion worth of BTC over the past 60 days as smaller investors appear to move in the opposite direction.

Wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin accumulated approximately 46,420 BTC during the period, marking the strongest whale buying activity since March.

The renewed buying comes as Bitcoin continues to trade well below its record high, raising questions about whether large holders are positioning for a potential recovery.